In 1930, America ignored 1,000 economists and started a trade war.
In 2025, economists are making identical warnings.
Last time's result? Adolf Hitler seized power.
Here's how the U.S. accidentally created history's worst dictator: 🧵
The 1920s were booming.
Strong economic growth everywhere.
But cracks were forming beneath the surface.
Income inequality was rising, debt was mounting.
And one group was getting destroyed:
American farmers were facing economic disaster.
During World War I, they had a captive market selling food to war-torn Europe.
But as Europe recovered, agricultural prices collapsed.
Fields that once brought prosperity could barely cover costs:
Desperate farming unions flooded Congress with letters.
Their message was simple: protect us from foreign competition or watch America's heartland die.
During the 1928 election, Herbert Hoover was listening.
He made them a promise that would change world history:
Hoover promised agricultural tariffs to save the farmers.
His plan was limited: just protect farm products from imports.
But when he won, he called Congress into a special session.
Willis Hawley, chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, had bigger ideas:
Hawley wanted tariffs on ALL imports, not just agricultural ones.
Hoover didn't say no.
This opened the floodgates for every industry to lobby for protection.
Senate chair Reed Smoot joined the expansion...
As the legislation grew, warnings poured in from everywhere.
Paul Douglas, a Chicago economist, organized an unprecedented response.
Over 1,000 economists signed an urgent petition begging Hoover to veto the bill.
They said it would affect the global economy too:
Meanwhile, numerous nations filed formal diplomatic protests.
Germany, already struggling with war reparations, warned of catastrophic consequences.
Canada threatened counter-tariffs.
But Hoover dismissed these as empty threats:
On June 17th, 1930, Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act into law.
Tariffs increased substantially across thousands of products.
The global economy was about to experience something it had never seen before.
And the effects were immediate and devastating:
International trade collapsed by 65% between 1929 and 1932.
US imports fell from $4 billion to just $1.5 billion.
Those farmers Hoover promised to save?
Their exports dropped 30%.
The "protection" policy was destroying the very people it promised to help...
But the real devastation was happening across the ocean.
Germany's fragile democracy was hanging by a thread.
American banks, desperate to save themselves, called in their German loans.
German unemployment exploded from 1.3 million to over 6 million:
Into this economic chaos stepped Adolf Hitler.
His Nazi party had received only 2.6% of votes in 1928.
But by 1932, they became Germany's largest political party.
In January 1933, as FDR took office in America, Hitler became Chancellor of Germany....
Historian Charles Kindleberger concluded: "The 1930 tariff was a critical factor in economic collapse that contributed to Hitler's rise."
What began as protecting American farmers ended up helping destabilize German democracy.
And the pattern is repeating today:
In 2024, over 400 economists signed letters warning against new trade barriers.
The same language. The same concerns. The same predictions.
"Trade wars create economic instability that threatens democratic institutions."
The lesson is terrifying in its simplicity.
Economic isolationism doesn't protect countries.
It creates the chaos that extremists exploit.
In 1930, America's trade war helped put Hitler in power.
Today's trade tensions are following the exact same playbook.
Video credit:
• The 1930 US Tariff That Created a Dictator
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7XGa-kDcC4
A bit about me:
I spent 15 years in tech and blockchain & built a Web3 company to 7 figures without VC funding or tokens.
Now I share insights on tech entrepreneurship and building in Web3.
Follow me @constantine_rm for lessons from the trenches, not theory.
